E. N. N. Nortey , BA , MPhil, PhD (Ghana)
Research interest
My research interests are in time series modelling with applications to financial and macroeconomic data.
Current research/project(s)
A. ARBITRAGE OPPORTUNITY IN THE GHANIAN STOCK MARKET: AN ARFIMA APPROACH: The contribution of the Ghanaian Stock market to the economic development of Ghana cannot be overlooked when one is discussing the attributing factors to the development of the Ghanaian economy. To fully capitalize on the opportunities brought forth by the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE), the behaviour of equity must well be understood. Most of the methodologies employed in analysing data from stock markets are based on the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) which assumes that there is no long-range memory or stochastic dependence structure in the data generating process. However, empirical evidence from stock data fails to support the lack of dependence especially in developing economies like Ghana. The implication of an equity market that is not efficient is that, there may be arbitrage opportunity in the market. This study investigates the presence of long-range memory or stochastic dependence in the Ghanaian stock composite index and some selected equities on the Ghanaian stock market using parametric as well as non-parametric methods. An Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model which is a discretized version of fractional Brownian motion will be explored in fitting models for the selected equities to investigate the presence of memory in the market.
B. Application of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to Inflation Rate Targeting: The Ghanaian case: Inflation targeting has been practiced by many countries of which Ghana is no exception. Successive Ghana governments have used inflation targeting as a tool in ensuring that the economic hardship on its citizenry is lessened. This provides these governments the bragging rights to score some political points. The aim of this study therefore is to investigate the tail behaviour of Ghana’s inflation rates using the Generalized Pareto distribution via the Peak Over Threshold method. This study will enable the estimation of lower as well as upper bound values of the rates of inflation and determine the exceedance probabilities for the very low inflation rates known as inflation targeting by the Bank of Ghana and also estimate very high inflation rates yet to be observed.
Past research projects
(1) Assessment of Orphans and Vulnerable Children (OVCs) Programme at Manya- Krobo District (2004). With Dev-Pro Consultancy Services as Statistician – Sponsored by UNICEF & Ghana AIDS Commission.
(2) The National Human Development Report, (Ghana, 2007) – Contributing Author and
Compiler of all Statistical Annexes (Sponsored by UNDP Ghana)
(3) Statistical Review and Analysis of Social Exclusion Issues in Ghana, (2007) Contributing Author - Sponsored by Department for International Development (DfID)
(4) Need Based Assessment of Tertiary Students (2009) with Statistics and Research Consult Ltd (SARCON) as Lead Consultant – Sponsored by Students’ Loan Trust Fund (SLTF)
(5) Land Administration Project in Ghana (2010) with MASDAR (UK) Ltd as Statistician – Sponsored by Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources
(6) Tracer Study of Procurement Interns (2010) with MASDAR (UK) Ltd as Statistician
(7) The Modelling of “Needs-Based Financial Aid System for Tertiary Institutions in Ghana” (2011) with Statistics and Research Consult Ltd (SARCON) as Lead Consultant – Sponsored by Students’ Loan Trust Fund (SLTF): A project that used the Means Testing methodology to determine the appropriate loan amount a student deserves and finally culminated in the development of software to aid the disbursement and administration of student loans in Ghana.
(8) 2010 National Census Report. (2012). Consultant writer for Chapter 13 (Disability): A Project for Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), Accra, Ghana.
(9) 2010 Regional Census Report. (2012). Consultant writer for Northern Regional Report: A project for Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), Accra, Ghana.
(10) Public Financial Management and Urban Services Perception Survey. (2013). With Dev-Pro Consultancy Services as Statistician – Project Client: Ministry of Local Government, Republic of Ghana.
(11) Primary Research Study with Households in Five Districts in the Central Region of Ghana on Knowledge, Awareness and Usage of Microinsurance Products. (2014). Lead Consultant – Project Client: Phoenix Insurance Company Limited and partly sponsored by German International Cooperation (GiZ).
(12) Reworking of The Enhancement of the Means Testing Model for Students Loan Trust Fund (SLTF) (2015) with Statistics and Research Consult Ltd (SARCON) as Lead Consultant – Sponsored by Students’ Loan Trust Fund (SLTF):
(13) Modelling Political Party Representations in District Level Elections in Ghana by International Democratic Governance (IDeG), (2018) Lead Consultant – Sponsored by International Democratic Governance (IDeG)
Awards
YEAR AMOUNT INSTITUTION
Feb. 25 – March 04, 2016 Euro 1,200.00 Training of Trainers Conference grant BSU II – University of Ghana and DANIDA
Aarhus University, Denmark
Oct. 29 – Nov. 02, 2012 Euro 1,500.00 Conference grant 9th International Conference of the African Association of Remote Sensing and the Environment (AARSE 2012), El Jadida, Morocco
Dec. 1 – 17, 2004 Euro 2,000.00 Training in Poverty Analysis using SAS Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands
Recent publications
Twumasi, C. , Asiedu L. and Nortey, E. N. N.. (2019). Statistical Modeling of HIV, Tuberculosis and Hepatitis B Transmission in Ghana. Hindawi, Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases and Medical Microbiology Volume 2019, Article ID 2697618. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/2697618
Twumasi, C. , Asiedu L. and Nortey, E. N. N.. (2019). Markov Chain Modeling of HIV, Tuberculosis, and Hepatitis B Transmission in Ghana. Hindawi Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases Volume 2019, Article ID 9362492. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/9362492
Amoah, S., Nortey, E. N. N., Alhassan, A. (2019). Child Discipline Practices in Ghanaian Homes. J Public Health (Berl.) DOI 10.1007/s10389-019-01079-z
Arko-Mensah, J., Darko, J., Nortey, E. N. N., May, J., Meyer, C. G., Fobil, J. N. (2019). Socioeconomic Status and Temporal Urban Environmental Change in Accra: A Comparative Analysis of Area-based Socioeconomic and Urban Environmental Quality Conditions Between Two Time Points. Environmental Management DOI: 10.1007/s00267-019-01150-1
Fleku, M., Nortey, E. N. N., Doku-Amponsah, K., Lotsi, A. (2019). Generalised Bernoulli Model for Correlated Binary Response: Application to the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) Datasets. South East Asian Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences. Volume 15 Issue 1: 71-88:
Professional membership(s)
Founding Member of Ghana Statistical Association (GSA)
Member of Statistical Association of South Africa (SASA)
Member of International Biometry Society (IBS)